Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?

Heuristics – Instinctual Conclusions
 Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty

1.     Binary Based Conclusions

·         Black & White, True or False, Yes or No

·         If it's what I see, it must be

·         Based on subjective observation

·         Downside – Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,

2.     Convenience Based Conclusions

·         Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.

·         Does it agree with my presuppositions?

·         Based on subjective opinion.

·         Downside – Lacks objectivity, skewes context.

3.     Conditional Based Conclusions

·         Answer Depends on clarification of question.

·         “It Depends”, If / Then statements.

·         Based on contingency outcome.

·         Downside – Can be used for control or manipulation


Critical Thinking – Mindful Conclusions
 Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency

4.     Investigative Based Conclusions.

·         Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.

·         Where Does the evidence lead?

·         Based on process of elimination.

·         Downside – Time consuming, may never resolve

5.     Causational Based Conclusions

·         Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.

·         The Why?, Motivation? Error?

·         Based on the process of determination.

·         Downside – Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations

6.     Probability Based Conclusions

·         Variable unprovable outcomes.

·         Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends

·         Based on research and analysis.

·         Info can be manipulated & misused

Conclusion – We all need to be using the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.

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