Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?
Heuristics – Instinctual Conclusions
Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty
1. Binary Based Conclusions
· Black & White, True or False, Yes or No
· If it's what I see, it must be
· Based on subjective observation
· Downside – Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,
2. Convenience Based Conclusions
· Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.
· Does it agree with my presuppositions?
· Based on subjective opinion.
· Downside – Lacks objectivity, skewes context.
3. Conditional Based Conclusions
· Answer Depends on clarification of question.
· “It Depends”, If / Then statements.
· Based on contingency outcome.
· Downside – Can be used for control or manipulation
Critical Thinking – Mindful Conclusions
Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency
4. Investigative Based Conclusions.
· Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.
· Where Does the evidence lead?
· Based on process of elimination.
· Downside – Time consuming, may never resolve
5. Causational Based Conclusions
· Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.
· The Why?, Motivation? Error?
· Based on the process of determination.
· Downside – Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations
6. Probability Based Conclusions
· Variable unprovable outcomes.
· Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends
· Based on research and analysis.
· Info can be manipulated & misused
Conclusion – We all need to be using the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.